en ارائه یک چارچوب یکپارچه به منظور اولویت‌بندی سناریوهای ریسک در عملیات آتشباری با استفاده از FBWM و تحلیل رابطه خاکستری ایمنی Safety پژوهشي Research <div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span style="line-height:107%"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><strong>زمینه و هدف:</strong> </span><span b="" lang="AR-SA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">آتشباری در معادن به‌دلیل استفاده مستقیم از مواد منفجره، پیامدهای بالقوه فاجعه‌آمیز و حساسیت بالا به خطاهای انسانی، یکی از پرمخاطره‌ترین فعالیت‌های معدنی است. پژوهش حاضر با هدف شناسایی سناریوهای ریسک مرتبط با عملیات آتشباری و توسعه چارچوبی ترکیبی برای ارزیابی و اولویت‌بندی آن‌ها انجام شد.</span><span lang="FA" style="font-family:"B Nazanin""></span></span></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span style="line-height:107%"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><strong>روش بررسی: </strong>سناریوهای</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">ریسک</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">آتشباری</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">با</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">مرور</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">منابع</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">علمی</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">و</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">فنی</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">مرتبط</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">و</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">بهره</span><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">‌</span><span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">گیری</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">از</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">نظر</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">خبرگان</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">شناسایی</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">شدند.</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">برای</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">افزایش</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">انسجام</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">مفهومی،</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">هر</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">مورد</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">در</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">قالب</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">سناریویی</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">متشکل</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">از</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">علت،</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">رویداد</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">خطرناک</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">و</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">پیامد</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">بالقوه</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">تدوین</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">شد</span><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">. </span><span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">چهار</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">معیار</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">شدت</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">پیامد،</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">احتمال</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">وقوع،</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">فرکانس</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">مواجهه</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">و</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">قابلیت</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">تحمل</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">ریسک</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">بر</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">اساس</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">دیدگاه</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">خبرگان</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">انتخاب</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">شدند. وزن</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">معیارها</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">با</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">روش</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">بهترین</span><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">&ndash;</span><span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">بدترین</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">فازی</span><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""> (FBWM) </span><span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">تعیین</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">و</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">سناریوهای</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">ریسک</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">با</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">استفاده</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">از</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">تحلیل</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">رابطه</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">خاکستری</span><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""> (GRA) </span><span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">اولویت</span><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">‌</span><span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">بندی</span> <span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">شدند.</span></span></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span style="line-height:107%"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><strong>یافته‌ها:</strong> نتایج </span><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">FBWM</span><span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> نشان داد شدت پیامد با وزن 0/489 بااهمیت‌ترین معیار و فرکانس مواجهه با وزن 0/106 کم‌اهمیت‌ترین معیار بود. سناریوی عدم استفاده آتشبار از تجهیزات حفاظت فردی ضد الکتریسیته ساکن (</span><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">R14</span><span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">) بالاترین اولویت و سناریوی انتخاب پناهگاه نزدیک محل آتشباری و در مسیر پرتاب سنگ (</span><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">R25</span><span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">) پایین‌ترین اولویت را به خود اختصاص داد.</span></span></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span style="line-height:107%"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><span b="" lang="FA" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><strong>بحث و نتیجه‌گیری:</strong> </span><span b="" lang="AR-SA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">چارچوب ترکیبی به‌کاررفته با تلفیق قضاوت خبرگان، </span><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">FBWM</span><span b="" lang="AR-SA" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> و </span><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">GRA</span><span b="" lang="AR-SA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">، امکان وزن‌دهی ساختاریافته معیارها و اولویت‌بندی سناریوهای ریسک را فراهم کرده و عدم‌قطعیت موجود در ارزیابی‌های کارشناسی را مدل‌سازی می‌کند. این چارچوب می‌تواند به‌عنوان ابزار پشتیبان تصمیم برای مدیران ایمنی، مسئولان معادن و مهندسان </span><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">HSE</span><span b="" lang="AR-SA" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> در شناسایی سناریوهای با اولویت بالاتر و برنامه‌ریزی اقدامات کنترلی استفاده شود؛ بااین‌حال، مقایسه عملکرد آن با روش‌های متداول نیازمند بهره‌گیری از داده‌های واقعی حوادث و بررسی در محیط‌های عملیاتی گسترده‌تر است.</span><span lang="FA" style="font-family:"B Nazanin""></span></span></span></span></span></span><br> &nbsp;</div> <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><strong>Background and Aim:</strong> Blasting is among the most hazardous mining activities because it involves the direct use of explosives, can produce catastrophic consequences, and is highly sensitive to human error. This study aimed to identify blasting-related risk scenarios and develop an integrated framework for their assessment and prioritization.</span></span></span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin""></span></span></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><strong>Methods:</strong> Blasting-related risk scenarios were identified through a review of relevant scientific and technical sources and consultation with experts. Each item was formulated as a risk scenario incorporating a causal condition, a hazardous event, and a potential consequence. Four assessment criteria&mdash;consequence, probability, exposure frequency, and risk tolerability&mdash;were selected based on expert judgment. Criterion weights were determined using the Fuzzy Best&ndash;Worst Method (FBWM), and Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) was then used to prioritize the risk scenarios.</span></span></span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin""></span></span></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><strong>Results: </strong>The FBWM results showed that consequence (weight = 0.489) was the most important criterion, whereas exposure frequency (weight = 0.106) was the least important. The scenario involving the blaster&rsquo;s failure to use anti-static personal protective equipment (R14) received the highest priority. By contrast, the scenario involving selection of a shelter near the blast site and within the fly rock trajectory (R25) received the lowest priority.</span></span></span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin""></span></span></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><strong>Conclusion:</strong> By integrating expert judgments, FBWM, and GRA, the proposed framework provides a structured means of weighting assessment criteria and prioritizing blasting risk scenarios while modelling uncertainty in expert evaluations. The framework may support safety managers, mine supervisors, and HSE professionals in identifying higher-priority scenarios and planning risk-control measures; however, its performance relative to conventional methods should be examined using empirical incident data and broader operational settings</span></span></span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">.</span></span></span></span></span></span><br> &nbsp; ارزیابی ریسک, سناریوی ریسک, آتشباری, معادن, روش FBWM, روش GRA Risk assessment, risk scenarios, blasting, mining, Fuzzy Best–Worst Method, Grey Relational Analysis 0 0 http://ioh.iums.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-4312-1&slc_lang=en&sid=1 edris soltani ادریس سلطانی edris.soltani@modares.ac.ir 13600319475328460046761 13600319475328460046761 No tarbiat modares university دانشگاه تربیت مدرس omran ahmadi عمران احمدی o.ahmadi@modares.ac.ir 13600319475328460046762 13600319475328460046762 No tarbiat modares university دانشگاه تربیت مدرس najaf noorizadeh نجف نوری زاده najafi5@gmail.com 13600319475328460046763 13600319475328460046763 No Abadan university of medical sciences دانشگاه علوم پزشکی آبادان payam rashnoudi پیام رشنودی p.rashnoudi@modares.ac.ir 13600319475328460046764 13600319475328460046764 Yes Abadan university of medical sciences دانشگاه علوم پزشکی آبادان