دوره 22، شماره 1 - ( 1404 )                   جلد 22 شماره 1 صفحات 346-326 | برگشت به فهرست نسخه ها

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khani Golabbas U, Panjali Z, Bayatian M. QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT OF BUTADIENE STORAGE TANKS IN A PROCESS UNIT USING FAULT TREE ANALYSIS BY FUZZY BAYESIAN AND CONSEQUENCE MODELING. ioh 2025; 22 (1) : 19
URL: http://ioh.iums.ac.ir/article-1-3738-fa.html
خانی گلعباس یوسف، پنجعلی زهرا، بیاتیان مجید. ارزیابی ریسک کمّی مخازن بوتا‌دی‌ان در یک واحد فرآیندی با استفاده از تحلیل درخت خطا مبتنی بر روش بیزین فازی و مدل‌سازی پیامد. سلامت كار ايران. 1404; 22 (1) :326-346

URL: http://ioh.iums.ac.ir/article-1-3738-fa.html


گروه مهندسی بهداشت حرفه ای و ایمنی کار، واحد علوم پزشکی تهران، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی تهران، ایران. ، majid_bayatian@yahoo.com
چکیده:   (667 مشاهده)
چکیده
زمینه و هدف: مخازن حاوی هیدروکربن بوتادی‌ان در صنایع فرآیندی، به دلیل ماهیت اشتعال‌زای شان، از اهمیت حیاتی برخوردارند. ارزیابی دقیق ریسک در این واحدها و مناطق مجاور، نه تنها برای حفاظت از تجهیزات و کارکنان، بلکه برای تضمین ایمنی فرآیند و ساکنین اطراف نیز ضروری است. این پژوهش با هدف ارزیابی ریسک سناریو احتمالی از طریق روش تحلیل درخت خطا و تعیین حریم ایمن مخازن با استفاده از نرم‌افزار  SAFETI 8.4و ترسیم کانتورهای ریسک انجام شد.
روش بررسی: این مطالعه کاربردی در سال ۱۴۰۳ در یکی از واحدهای پتروشیمی کشور انجام شد. شناسایی اولیه مخاطرات مخزن به روش HAZOP توسط تیم تخصصی صورت گرفت و انفجار مخزن بوتادی‌ان به‌عنوان بدترین سناریوی محتمل انتخاب شد. علل نقص در مخزن بوتادی‌ان با روش کیفی FTA مشخص گردید. احتمال وقوع هریک از رویدادهای پایه با نظرات خبرگان و منطق فازی برآورد گردید. به منظور برآورد احتمال رویداد نهایی از روش کمّی FTAبه کمک شبکه بیزین در نرم‌افزار GeNIe 5.0 استفاده شد. جهت ارزیابی کانتور ریسک و برآورد نرخ تکرارپذیری از نرم افرار SAFETI 8.4 استفاده شد.
یافته‌ها: نتایج روش  FTAآشکار ساخت که 45 رویداد پایه و 3 رویداد میانی می‌تواند منجر به گسیختگی مخزن بوتادی‌ان شود که پس از مدلسازی شبکه‌های بیزین در نرم افزار GeNIe 5.0 رویدادهای پایه "تنش برشی" و "خطای عمدی در اجرای دستورالعمل‌ها"  با احتمال شکست0008974/0 و 0091622/0 به ترتیب کمترین و بیشترین علل ایجاد رویداد اصلی در مخزن بوتادی‌ان بودند. نرم‌افزار SAFETI، بیشترین آسیب را در محدوده مخزن بوتادی‌ان نشان داد، در حالی که کمترین آسیب‌پذیری در فاصله 900 متری از نقطه انفجار مشاهده شد. همچنین، مشخص شد که با افزایش فاصله از کانون انفجار، میزان آسیب به کاربری زمین کاهش می‌یابد. ریسک جمعی تخمین زده شده در محدوده غیرقابل قبول3-10 قرار گرفت و احتمال وقوع رویداد اصلی با روش FBN، 0000202/0 تعیین شد.
نتیجه گیری: نتایج این مطالعه نشان داد که وقوع انفجار در مخزن بوتادی‌ان می‌تواند مناطق اطراف مخزن را تحت تأثیر قرار دهد و ریسک به‌دست‌آمده از این سناریو بیشتر از حد قابل‌قبول ارزیابی شد.
 
شماره‌ی مقاله: 19
متن کامل [PDF 2402 kb]   (321 دریافت)    
نوع مطالعه: پژوهشي | موضوع مقاله: ایمنی
دریافت: 1403/12/18 | پذیرش: 1404/6/15 | انتشار: 1404/1/10

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