Ethics code: ندارد
Department of occupational health and work safey, TeMS.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran , majid_bayatian@yahoo.com
Abstract: (275 Views)
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Butadiene storage tanks in process industries pose substantial risks due to the highly flammable nature of their contents. Accurate risk assessment is essential not only for protecting personnel and equipment but also for ensuring overall process safety and safeguarding surrounding communities. This study aims to evaluate the risk levels of potentially catastrophic scenarios using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and to define the safety perimeter through risk contour modeling with DNV’s SAFETI v8.4 software.
METHODS: An expert panel collaborated to reduce uncertainties, and the worst-case scenario—characterized by the highest probability and severity—was selected. Experts’ opinions were applied through a fuzzy logic-based approach to estimate the probabilities of basic events in the chosen scenario. Root causes of failures were first outlined qualitatively, and then a quantitative FTA was conducted. Defuzzified data provided deterministic probabilities for each event, which were then utilized in a Bayesian Network model using GeNIe software to calculate the probability of the top event. SAFETI software was used to generate risk contours and determine safety perimeters for a catastrophic rupture.
RESULTS: FTA identified 45 basic and 17 intermediate events potentially leading to catastrophic outcomes. Bayesian analysis revealed that intentional procedural violations (probability: 0.0091622) as the most significant, while shear stress (0.00089743) was the least significant contributor. SAFETI modeling indicated maximum damage localized within the tank area, with risk diminishing at 900 meters from the explosion. The social risk was found at an unacceptable level (10⁻³), and the top event occurrence probability was 0.00020267.
CONCLUSION: FTA combined with SAFETI provides a robust framework for assessing and managing risk in hazardous process scenarios, offering practical insights for safety improvements and emergency planning.
KEYWORDS: Risk Assessment; Butadiene Tanks; Bayesian Network; Explosion; Consequence Modeling.
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Butadiene storage tanks in process industries pose substantial risks due to the highly flammable nature of their contents. Accurate risk assessment is essential not only for protecting personnel and equipment but also for ensuring overall process safety and safeguarding surrounding communities. This study aims to evaluate the risk levels of potentially catastrophic scenarios using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and to define the safety perimeter through risk contour modeling with DNV’s SAFETI v8.4 software.
METHODS: An expert panel collaborated to reduce uncertainties, and the worst-case scenario—characterized by the highest probability and severity—was selected. Experts’ opinions were applied through a fuzzy logic-based approach to estimate the probabilities of basic events in the chosen scenario. Root causes of failures were first outlined qualitatively, and then a quantitative FTA was conducted. Defuzzified data provided deterministic probabilities for each event, which were then utilized in a Bayesian Network model using GeNIe software to calculate the probability of the top event. SAFETI software was used to generate risk contours and determine safety perimeters for a catastrophic rupture.
RESULTS: FTA identified 45 basic and 17 intermediate events potentially leading to catastrophic outcomes. Bayesian analysis revealed that intentional procedural violations (probability: 0.0091622) as the most significant, while shear stress (0.00089743) was the least significant contributor. SAFETI modeling indicated maximum damage localized within the tank area, with risk diminishing at 900 meters from the explosion. The social risk was found at an unacceptable level (10⁻³), and the top event occurrence probability was 0.00020267.
CONCLUSION: FTA combined with SAFETI provides a robust framework for assessing and managing risk in hazardous process scenarios, offering practical insights for safety improvements and emergency planning.
KEYWORDS: Risk Assessment; Butadiene Tanks; Bayesian Network; Explosion; Consequence Modeling.
Article number: 19
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